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Ofgem's October price cap goes up 4%, but the rise is almost entirely gas, not electricity, which matters if you're weighing solar against your bill

The new cap, effective 1 October to 31 December, takes the typical dual-fuel household to £1,723 a year, an extra £60. Gas is up 8%; electricity is described by Ofgem as "broadly stable" this quarter thanks to VAT removal. Worth knowing before assuming this announcement makes solar's payback case any stronger than it already was.

9 September 2026 · Source: Ofgem

Ofgem announced on 26 August that the price cap rises 4% for the October to December 2026 quarter, taking the typical direct-debit dual-fuel household to £1,723 a year, up £60 from the current £1,663. The driver is wholesale gas, which Ofgem says has risen 11% over the past three months on geopolitical pressure in global gas markets, still well below the 2022 crisis peak but moving in the wrong direction again. Gas bills rise 8% under the new cap; electricity bills are described as broadly stable, held down by the government's VAT removal, and homes without a gas connection see less than a 1% increase.

That split matters for anyone reading this site specifically because a plug-in or MCS solar system offsets electricity use, not gas use. When a price cap rise is driven mainly by electricity, as some past ones have been, the case for self-generation gets measurably stronger overnight, you're paying more for every unit your panels would otherwise have supplied. This one doesn't do that. Electricity is flat this quarter, so the direct financial case for installing solar hasn't shifted with this announcement the way headlines suggesting a 4% price rise might imply. If your home is gas-heated, this cap rise is a heating cost story, and no amount of rooftop or plug-in solar capacity touches your gas bill.

Where it does still matter is indirectly: Ofgem's own framing, that wholesale volatility is back even below 2022 levels, is the same argument this site has made about the value of reducing your exposure to any centrally-set price at all, whichever fuel it's attached to this particular quarter. A solar-plus-battery setup that covers a meaningful share of daytime and evening electricity use insulates you from whatever electricity does in future quarters, even if this one happened to land softly. That's a reason to plan for solar on a multi-year view, not a reason to treat this specific announcement as new urgency.

None of this changes what this site says about doing it yourself. A compliant plug-in kit, capped at 800W and installed to the ENA-listed spec, is a genuine DIY option for a straightforward socket-connected setup. Anything involving your consumer unit, a grid-tied inverter beyond plug-in scope, or export payments under the Smart Export Guarantee needs an MCS-certified installer, full stop, regardless of what any given quarter's price cap does. If you're in Kent and want a proper read on which route fits your home, that's what a conversation with us is for, not a DIY forum thread.

Read the original: Ofgem. Commentary is Sandwich Solar's own editorial view; the original reporting is credited to its publisher.

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